Taking on new projects · 2026 Railroad Fuel-Efficiency Consultant

Helping railroads consume less fuel and move more freight.

I'm Wayne Kennedy — an independent consultant with three decades of hands-on railroad experience optimizing locomotive fuel consumption, emissions, and operations for North America's largest railroads. Data-driven, field-tested, results that move the needle.

Wayne Kennedy

Founder, Kennedy Consulting

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Track record and reach

Three decades inside the industry — and an audience that reads the work

The record

30+

Years in rail operations

10%+

Typical fuel savings identified

$1B+

Fuel expense saved

Class I/II/III

Railroad experience

Who the published analysis reaches

17,985

Rail professionals reached

82%

Of them outside my own network

33,200+

Impressions on the analysis

Six in-depth analyses published since July 2026, drawing 283 reactions, 61 comments and 22 saves. Figures from LinkedIn’s own analytics, last 90 days.

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Technology Applications Beyond Fuel Savings

Open-Source Wind Tunnel Aerodynamic drag testing
Bridge Health Monitoring Heuristic Actions, Inc.
Concrete Ties Track Tec
Flood & Rockfall Prediction Cascade Geomatics

Latest insights

Analysis I’ve Published Recently

Independent read-outs on Class I fuel efficiency, emissions targets and network velocity.

Part 1 of 324 August 2026

Intensity targets: fuel efficiency is a half-strength lever

Four Class I railroads carry emissions-intensity targets measured per gross ton-mile. Fuel efficiency and emissions intensity look like twins over 2019–2026E — 9.9% versus 9.7% cumulative improvement, an r of 0.95 on levels. Year over year, the relationship falls apart. The regression slope says a 1% fuel-efficiency gain returns only about 0.47% of intensity reduction, because Scope 2 sits in the intensity numerator and never appears in a fuel number, and biofuel cuts reported emissions while acting as a headwind to pure efficiency. A savings case built on gallons travels only half the distance toward the target the customer is actually measured on.

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Part 2 of 326 August 2026

Absolute targets: when commercial success moves the goalposts

Union Pacific and BNSF carry absolute reduction targets rather than intensity targets, and absolute behaves nothing like intensity. Their combined emissions track traffic volume almost one for one — r = 0.96, with a regression slope of 1.11 — so volume, not operating performance, is the dominant variable. Most of the reduction those two can claim today came from the 2018–2020 volume collapse, and combined 2026E volume is on pace for the highest since 2021. That creates a real tension: every ton won from the highway lowers society's emissions and raises the railroad's reported number. Rail is roughly three to four times more fuel efficient per ton-mile, which is precisely why the conflict matters.

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Part 3 of 328 August 2026

Tracking to 2030: how both groups are really doing

Both camps miss, and by similar margins. Modelling each carrier's trend forward with a Monte Carlo on efficiency, biofuel blend ramp and traffic volume puts the intensity group's 2030 outcome about 23% above its own goal and the absolute group about 25% above. The arithmetic is the obstacle: hitting these targets needs roughly 8% annual reduction over four years against a delivered run rate of 1.5 to 2% a year — a four- to fivefold sustained acceleration, with no volume downturn to help. One carrier has better than a one-in-ten chance, BNSF, and about two thirds of that edge traces to target design rather than performance: a 30% absolute goal against Union Pacific's 50.4%, set off a 2018 base year that was a cyclical volume peak. Higher biofuel blends are the cheapest ton of CO₂ avoided by a wide margin, but closing these gaps on biofuel alone implies fleetwide B25 to B45 by 2030 against OEM approval that today tops out at a conditional B20. That is the commercial opening: the gap is real, the levers are known, and the qualification work is not done.

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